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The Illusion of a Pharaoh

The Ikhwan have an ability to say one thing and do completely the opposite. If you've read my previous blogs you will understand that I never credited Morsi for removal of SCAF and time has shown that...

SCAF is exactly the same as it was under Mubarak. It still enjoys all its protections and more importantly its own economy, thereby suggesting – as I stated previously – a simple matter of self-preservation instigated by General Abdul Fattah al-Sisi and nothing to do with Morsi.  There was no actual reform or changes.  The fact Morsi takes credit for it is just another Ikhwan trait which will eventually lead to their downfall.

Let us look at the developments over the past 10 days:

Morsi was credited with solving Gaza. Er… exactly what did he do that Mubarak did not do and also get credited with? The answer is nothing. Mubarak recalled the ambassador on two different occasions. He also condemned Isareli actions. And everything – as always – abruptly ended only after the US got involved and politely asked Israel to stop.  If you look at the Gaza situation and the reality – instead of the rhetoric-  you will notice the following:

*It was actually a member of the old REGIME intelligence community that did the negotiation part with Israel.

* Morsi’s sway with Hamas was in deep question when Hamas did not refrain from firing rockets even when they said they would during Kandil’s visit.

* Israel destroyed every single target they wished to have destroyed, almost creating as much destruction as previous longer lasting wars.  They really did not need the ground offensive. Israel  - despite what Hamas insists –  achieved all their objectives political and military.

* Israel only stopped after Hiliary Clinton came to the table.

* The borders remain closed, suggesting the Egyptian Army still has the final say on that issue.

So why did America credit him? It is simple. When America backed the Brotherhood against Mubarak, it was banking that the Ihkwan  - with their power on the streets amongst Islamists and possible sway over Hamas – could keep the region calm.  America knows they can control our army due to their funding but they needed a strong group to control the streets.  The problem is that on a real level Morsi has proven unable to control anything and it is too late for America to announce they supported a lame duck.  America could not give a damn if we have REAL democracy or not. Their concern is Israel’s safety and someone who could strong-arm the population into submission.  Real democracy in Egypt might hurt America’s intrests.  America was fully aware of Morsi’s decision to become a dictator but they will turn a blind eye and even boost his credibility and praise him on other subjects because America really does need someone to control the Egyptian people.

If we look at Morsi’s actual ability on the ground it has proved to be one failure after another. Morsi  - despite having full executive power and full legitature power – has been UNABLE to actually apply a single new LAW or action.

He tried to muzzle the media –  all it did was become more bitter against him (obviously apart from the direct state media which is loosing credibility daily). He tried to get rid of the prosecutor round one – without it looking like an open power grab – and it failed. He tried to make shops close early, then backtracked.  There has not been a single reform, because frankly Mubarak’s tactics – which they hope to have inherited – will not work.

Morsi is losing a lot of support from the non-Islamists who voted for him.  Farmers and workers unions have denounced him and rescinded support. Doctors and teachers are on strike.  The tourism industry is in a shambles and tourism workers are on strike. (The tourism figures the government suggested are obviously as fake as their economy growth predictions.) The list goes on.  Every day more people turn against Morsi.

And all that fails to take into account what I believe to be the main reason behind Mori’s failures: Egyptians are simply not that religious. I can’t help but suspect that as much lip-servvice as much of the population pays to the importance of religion, what is far more important is the money in their pockets. With full stomachs and cheap fuel they are happy to say religion was their motivator for voting Morsi. But in reality they voted Morsi because the Ikhwan told them they would be financially better off.  And now they’ve stopped believing it, demonstrated yesterday when in many governorates throughout Egypt – including Ihkwan strongholds – the people took to the streets openly and violently against Brotherhood rule.

Morsi knows that for all the Islamic gibberish he spouts out on his speeches, without the MONEY to support the subsidies, he will last about one hour.  There is a very big factor people keep OVERLOOKING – which was one of the main reasons BEHIND the judiciary changes:  TO GET THE MONEY FROM IMF THERE MUST BE PARLIAMENT APPROVAL (please note IMF is not just 4.5billion – it opens the way to 15 billion in other loans and grants). And to have a parliament there must be a constitution. And if the judiciary dissolve the constitutional assembly and the shura, too much time would elapse and the country WILL GO BROKE. And from that point onwards, I’d give it about two hours before the masses take to the streets.

This decision by Morsi to be above judiciary is out of necessity, and the fact he can slip in controlling the judiciary between some nonsensical revolutionary diatribe is a bonus for him.  Fact is, all judges in Egypt will not stand for it as it threatens their own preservation. But at this point Morsi only needs to control the judiciary for a few months.

Morsi is very desperate, and should the judges stand strong against him, and show the civil forces unite against him, he will be out by January 25th next year. Strangely enough the fate of country will rest upon the MOI. Should the MOI decide to take a strong stance against the protestors – and against general dissent – Morsi might just buy enough time till the loans come in. Should the MOI, or more importantly the boots on the ground , decide after their first experience fighting will not bode well for them, Morsi will be left open for the now legitimate army to roll in and remove him from power.

With so many FJP headquarters set a light yesterday, either the MOI is unwilling or unable to control the situation. And with a united opposition growing we must all band together to remove this tyranny. Because despite what they say, the IHKWAN ARE REALLY ON THE BACKFOOT.

So although on paper there is the ILLUSION OF POWER, Morsi has no real tools and the people will no longer accept anything but true reform.  Does this mean we can relax? No it means there will be a fight. But it is a fight we can win as long as the focus is uniting ALL, and I mean ALL, opposition.


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